Convoluted Analysis Indicates Pelfrey In For Tough Year

Leave it to a Sports Illustrated writer to coin his own phrase: The Verducci Effect. We all remember Tom Verducci, an ex-Newsday writer before he reached the "big time" with SI. Despite the fact that Sports Illustrated has basically become a completely irrelevant publication, the Verducci Effect is actually getting some play in the mainstream media as a means to identify major league pitchers most likely to accumulate disappointing stats in the upcoming season.

And who's at the top of this "most likely to disappoint' list? None other than our own Mike Pelfrey.

According to this theory, pitchers aged 25 or under whose innings pitched increased by at least 30 innings from the prior year have a tendency to underperform the next season. The reason behind this thinking is that young pitchers are not conditioned to put up those kind of "big" inning numbers. According to Verducci, "it's like trying to run a marathon without having built enough stamina incrementally".

Wow... Tell that to Tom Seaver... Or Nolan Ryan... or Steve Carlton... or Curt Shilling... Has the human body changed that much where 30 extra innings is an indication of physical exhaustion? And some people are actually buying into this analysis!

According to "The Effect", Mike Pelfrey shows the most potential for underachieveing this year, followed by Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Lincecum (that's right - Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum).

Now if ESPN, or some other respectable sports analysis organization, came up with this kind of stat, I'd be worried. Instead, I'm betting on the continued ineptitude of SI writers to predict ANY sports event correctly and say I'm looking forward to a GREAT year from Pelfrey. (assuming he's not hurt, of course - in which case Verducci looks like a genius)