2008 Mets Season Preview
Yeah, I know, I know. Running a season preview AFTER opening day? How gauche. But listen, after presiding over yet another local sports collapse, this one on ice, going to conferences and having to plan two surprise birthday parties for my wife (yes, she's special) with two kids running around, I've been a little busy.
But that's why the start of the baseball season is so great -- it's a new beginning. And Mets fans, filled with the audacity of hope now that Johan Santana is our ace, have had their expectations skyrocket from not knowing what to expect in 2008 from expecting nothing less than a World Series appearance.
And you know what? There's little reason to expect otherwise.
PITCHING
Why not start with where the Mets' hopes begin and end, on the mound? Johan Santana is to Tom Glavine as Secretariat is to a bottle of glue. Santana strikes people out and dominates. Glavine hits a lot of bats and escapes more than he wins. The value of Santana can probably be calculated by some Bill James mathematical formula, but all the Mets fans care about is that when he is on the mound, our confidence surges like a pack of screaming teens to the Jonas Brothers. Hello, Cy Young.
Behind him is Pedro Martinez, pitching in a walk year after looking pretty damn good when he came back last season. Missing him for most of the year almost certainly had an effect on the team's psyche, not to mention their number of quality starts, and from what we've seen so far, he and Santana could be the best 1-2 in baseball. John Maine could win 20 games -- and we're not the only ones saying it. Oliver Perez may give you one stinker for every two decent starts, but we're interested in seeing if he steps it up another notch. Fifth starter is a crapshoot, at least until Orlando Hernandez gets the job from a disappointing Mike Pelfrey. Then El Duque will get hurt again. A mid-season trade seems inevitable.
The bullpen has many of the same faces as last season, but with the starters pitching more innings, which they should, it shouldn't hit the wall like it did last year. Billy Wagner will save 35-40 games, blow four or five, and make you more nervous with a three-run lead than with a one-run lead, but that's him. The changeup gives him a new wrinkle. Aaron Heilman had great numbers last season but like everyone else had his share of bad outings, but he's solid as a setup guy, especially with the eventual return of Duaner Sanchez.
Regular site visitors know I'm a big Pedro Feliciano fan. He went through some tough times personally in the second half which may have affected him, and Willie Randolph often misused him (as he did with virtually everyone in the pen). Expect Feliciano to be effective again, and Matt Wise looks like a great addition, meaning Scott Schoeneweiss and Joe Smith can do their situational things. Jorge Sosa is a perfect middle inning / long man / spot starter.
Bottom line: Pitching will take the Mets to where they want to go this season.
INFIELD
Two potential MVP candidates on the left side with David Wright and Jose Reyes - what more can you say? Reyes says he's going to tone down the celebrations this season. We don't care what he does as long as he can bounce back from his season-ending slump, which we chalk up to a lesson in maturity. Wright could be the best player in the National League, and his name will be on the back of Mets fans for years to come.
Luis Castillo is getting older and is a little brittle but he's a good fielder and the perfect number two hitter behind Reyes. The big question is Carlos Delgado, who looks to be in great shape despite tepid spring numbers. He had the worst season of his career and he went 24-87-.258, missing 23 games. It's not unreasonable to see a bit of bounce back. If he can hit 25-30 homers, drive in 90-plus and hit closer to his career average of .280, that will go a long way in helping the lineup score runs.
Former steroid user Paul LoDuca is gone, taking "Volare" and "Staying Alive" with him. We liked LoDuca and his fire, and hope that Brian Schneider's defensive abilities are as advertised. We also hope he can at least hit .250. Ramon Castro should get plenty of chances against lefties and could hit 15 homers.
OUTFIELD
Ryan Church has plenty of doubters because of his stats against lefties, but his overall numbers last season were pretty good: In 144 games he hit 15 homers, 43 doubles and drove in 70, batting .272. He's 29 and will get a shot at playing pretty much every day. We're more than willing to give him a chance.
Moises Alou may have gone to high school with Methusaleh (they were in the same home ec class) but when he's healthy, he can hit. Unfortunately, he's not, so this year's spring training surprise, Angel Pagan, will play out in left with Endy Chavez. Carlos Beltran put the bull's eye on his back by calling the Mets the team to beat, but he can handle the heat. For all the criticism he gets, Beltran is a Gold Glove centerfielder who has averaged 37-114-.275 with 20 steals his last two seasons. Let's let him play.
BENCH
Versatile veterans Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley are joined by Chavez, Pagan, Castro (when he returns) and Brady Clark. Decent depth and flexibility. Chavez can play 2 or 3 times a week and no one would mind. Anderson is one of the best pinch hitters around.
MANAGER
We hope to see less of Stubborn Willie -- the one who brought in Guillermo Mota in the face of bad splits and the fact that he just plain sucked -- and more of Sensible Willie, the guy who has learned from his (many) mistakes and is ready to take his team to the next level by managing at a higher level.
Sure, we would have liked to have seen more fire from Willie when things were going down the crapper, but it turns out he didn't do much behind the scenes, either. He says he trusted his guys, and now knows better not to risk letting anything fester. We hope so. Willie is a good manager and a good man, but his job is on the line this season. He knows it, we know it.
PREDICTION
The Phillies will score runs but their starting pitching beyond Cole Hamels is suspect, plus Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon don't exactly inspire confidence. The Braves are everyone's darling again, and they'll also score, but John Smoltz is showing signs of aging, Glavine is toast and Mike Hampton has to show us something in actual regular season games before we say he's back. We worry that Lastings Milledge will kill the Mets this season, but that shouldn't stop the Mets from winning the East with about97 victories.
The NL, like last season is wide open. We like Santana-Pedro-Maine in a playoff series, don't you?
Shea Stadium goes out with bang under the World Series spotlight, and the Mets take the Tigers in six. We'll enjoy the trip there.
But that's why the start of the baseball season is so great -- it's a new beginning. And Mets fans, filled with the audacity of hope now that Johan Santana is our ace, have had their expectations skyrocket from not knowing what to expect in 2008 from expecting nothing less than a World Series appearance.
And you know what? There's little reason to expect otherwise.
PITCHING
Why not start with where the Mets' hopes begin and end, on the mound? Johan Santana is to Tom Glavine as Secretariat is to a bottle of glue. Santana strikes people out and dominates. Glavine hits a lot of bats and escapes more than he wins. The value of Santana can probably be calculated by some Bill James mathematical formula, but all the Mets fans care about is that when he is on the mound, our confidence surges like a pack of screaming teens to the Jonas Brothers. Hello, Cy Young.
Behind him is Pedro Martinez, pitching in a walk year after looking pretty damn good when he came back last season. Missing him for most of the year almost certainly had an effect on the team's psyche, not to mention their number of quality starts, and from what we've seen so far, he and Santana could be the best 1-2 in baseball. John Maine could win 20 games -- and we're not the only ones saying it. Oliver Perez may give you one stinker for every two decent starts, but we're interested in seeing if he steps it up another notch. Fifth starter is a crapshoot, at least until Orlando Hernandez gets the job from a disappointing Mike Pelfrey. Then El Duque will get hurt again. A mid-season trade seems inevitable.
The bullpen has many of the same faces as last season, but with the starters pitching more innings, which they should, it shouldn't hit the wall like it did last year. Billy Wagner will save 35-40 games, blow four or five, and make you more nervous with a three-run lead than with a one-run lead, but that's him. The changeup gives him a new wrinkle. Aaron Heilman had great numbers last season but like everyone else had his share of bad outings, but he's solid as a setup guy, especially with the eventual return of Duaner Sanchez.
Regular site visitors know I'm a big Pedro Feliciano fan. He went through some tough times personally in the second half which may have affected him, and Willie Randolph often misused him (as he did with virtually everyone in the pen). Expect Feliciano to be effective again, and Matt Wise looks like a great addition, meaning Scott Schoeneweiss and Joe Smith can do their situational things. Jorge Sosa is a perfect middle inning / long man / spot starter.
Bottom line: Pitching will take the Mets to where they want to go this season.
INFIELD
Two potential MVP candidates on the left side with David Wright and Jose Reyes - what more can you say? Reyes says he's going to tone down the celebrations this season. We don't care what he does as long as he can bounce back from his season-ending slump, which we chalk up to a lesson in maturity. Wright could be the best player in the National League, and his name will be on the back of Mets fans for years to come.
Luis Castillo is getting older and is a little brittle but he's a good fielder and the perfect number two hitter behind Reyes. The big question is Carlos Delgado, who looks to be in great shape despite tepid spring numbers. He had the worst season of his career and he went 24-87-.258, missing 23 games. It's not unreasonable to see a bit of bounce back. If he can hit 25-30 homers, drive in 90-plus and hit closer to his career average of .280, that will go a long way in helping the lineup score runs.
Former steroid user Paul LoDuca is gone, taking "Volare" and "Staying Alive" with him. We liked LoDuca and his fire, and hope that Brian Schneider's defensive abilities are as advertised. We also hope he can at least hit .250. Ramon Castro should get plenty of chances against lefties and could hit 15 homers.
OUTFIELD
Ryan Church has plenty of doubters because of his stats against lefties, but his overall numbers last season were pretty good: In 144 games he hit 15 homers, 43 doubles and drove in 70, batting .272. He's 29 and will get a shot at playing pretty much every day. We're more than willing to give him a chance.
Moises Alou may have gone to high school with Methusaleh (they were in the same home ec class) but when he's healthy, he can hit. Unfortunately, he's not, so this year's spring training surprise, Angel Pagan, will play out in left with Endy Chavez. Carlos Beltran put the bull's eye on his back by calling the Mets the team to beat, but he can handle the heat. For all the criticism he gets, Beltran is a Gold Glove centerfielder who has averaged 37-114-.275 with 20 steals his last two seasons. Let's let him play.
BENCH
Versatile veterans Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley are joined by Chavez, Pagan, Castro (when he returns) and Brady Clark. Decent depth and flexibility. Chavez can play 2 or 3 times a week and no one would mind. Anderson is one of the best pinch hitters around.
MANAGER
We hope to see less of Stubborn Willie -- the one who brought in Guillermo Mota in the face of bad splits and the fact that he just plain sucked -- and more of Sensible Willie, the guy who has learned from his (many) mistakes and is ready to take his team to the next level by managing at a higher level.
Sure, we would have liked to have seen more fire from Willie when things were going down the crapper, but it turns out he didn't do much behind the scenes, either. He says he trusted his guys, and now knows better not to risk letting anything fester. We hope so. Willie is a good manager and a good man, but his job is on the line this season. He knows it, we know it.
PREDICTION
The Phillies will score runs but their starting pitching beyond Cole Hamels is suspect, plus Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon don't exactly inspire confidence. The Braves are everyone's darling again, and they'll also score, but John Smoltz is showing signs of aging, Glavine is toast and Mike Hampton has to show us something in actual regular season games before we say he's back. We worry that Lastings Milledge will kill the Mets this season, but that shouldn't stop the Mets from winning the East with about97 victories.
The NL, like last season is wide open. We like Santana-Pedro-Maine in a playoff series, don't you?
Shea Stadium goes out with bang under the World Series spotlight, and the Mets take the Tigers in six. We'll enjoy the trip there.
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posted by Gaspo @ 6:06 AM
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